The housing market in Singapore is heading for a prolonged downturn and overall private home prices are forecast to fall between 22 and 26 per cent in the next three years, Daiwa Research said. “We believe the residential property market could remain depressed for several years, triggered initially by a likely forthcoming gross domestic product slowdown (in 2012) and lingering global economic uncertainty,” it said.

From late next year, Daiwa said, structural issues such as the rapid build-up in unsold inventory in the primary market and vacant rental units will take centre stage and keep home prices and rents in check for several years.

The mass-market segment will hold up slightly better than high-end properties, supported by better affordability and the resilience in the resale prices of Housing and Development Board flats, Daiwa said.

The house has downgraded its view of Singapore’s property sector to “Negative” from “Neutral”, adding that “it is hard for us to see the developer shares outperforming the Straits Times Index over the next six months” despite their underperformance in the year to date

可如今可都是深秋了却还不曾察觉。
投行的研报有差错并不稀奇，可人家吃这行饭的，没有一些前瞻性也不用在这行混了。
环顾四周，中国的房价被称为“断崖”式滑落，香港的房贷利率已不断上升，而本地明年GDP增长预估只有1%-3%，而欧洲的危机已经不止当初欧猪五国，连法国都遭池鱼之殃。 而美国的失业率居高不下，明年经济增长堪忧。缺乏基本面支持的本地房市，最大的支撑只能来自超低的房贷利率。问题是这样的低利率还能维持多久？可以预期的是随着欧洲危机的愈演愈烈，避险的预期增加会导致更多热钱回流美国，本地明年起房贷利息上调可能性极大。
还是看看香港的情况
（渣打银行本周一起上调按揭息率,料未来会有更多的银行跟随.而这次的加息将会令到购买一般"上车盘"的市民的供楼负担比率升至50%的临界值,令到一些资本充裕的首次买家难以入市,亦增加了部份一手楼盘买家或未能完成交易的风险.

但在香港住宅按揭市场中排行第四的渣打(2888.HK: 行情)上周五突然宣布上调按揭息率,银行同业拆息(HIBOR,H)按揭计划息率由H加2至2.5%,调升至H加2.5至3%;息率上限维持于P减2至2.35%.最优惠利率(P)按揭计划亦由P减2.35至2.65%调升至P减2至2.4%,由今天起生效.

巴克莱资本周一发表报告称,这是自3月以来,本地银行第六次调升按揭利率.按揭利率上调对住宅市场潜在买家的购买力有渐进影响.首轮的加息首先会赶出一些资本不足的首次置业人士,这从向按揭证券公司申请九成按揭比例的宗数大幅减少可见一斑.但最近期的加息,则将会把一些实力较佳的潜在置业人士也要离场.）

HDB成立的目的是为了让百姓居者有其屋，怎么能和开发商相提并论？开发商要为股东负责，将利益最大化。

政府难到不担心这些积压组屋的旧事重演，没错！许文远早就表达了他对本地房地产市场的担忧，他并非担忧房价上涨太快，而是忧虑受周边环境影响所导致房价快速下跌的局面。HDB大量新建组屋，即使BTO申购比例不达标也继续新建，这更多的还前任的债，平息民怨，解决初次置业者的居住问题，这难道不是明摆的事实吗？

覆巢之下，焉有完卵，所谓的decoupling 理论还有销路？呵呵。

小小蝴蝶尚能如发如此的波动，更何况是全球化的金融市场。
再者而言，香港加息，是由于热钱的出逃，导致香港银行资金捉襟见肘，从而引发升息，绝非是港府想要打压房价而升息。香港与新加坡有相当高的类比性，所以可以参考。 最近国内外资行美元贷款利率也是急升，加之国内首次出现外汇占款下降的局面，可见资金回流的现象已是很明显了。
欧央行降低基准利率，但是意，西等国国债被避险资金大量抛售而导致利率急剧上升，这些国家的国内银行也面临评级下调，融资成本上涨等问题。 你觉得这些银行不会通过升息来转嫁融资成本吗？
哪个国家不想保增长，问题是不是你想保就可以实现的。从房市股市崩盘至今，日本刺激经济要20年了，还是没能走出当年资产泡沫的阴影。

Be more prudent when purchasing property, urges Khaw

Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan has advised Singaporeans to be prudent when purchasing property.

With the wide range of housing options, prospective buyers should choose wisely and buy within their budget.

Mr Khaw said this in response to a question raised by Pasir Ris-Punggol MP Gan Thiam Poh on whether there were plans to review the current HDB flat pricing policy to make sure public housing remains affordable for Singaporeans.

“The current low interest rate will not stay low forever. Any global economic recession may also affect their (Singaporeans’) jobs,” he said, citing the deteriorating global economic situation as one reason to be wary.

“On the other hand, existing HDB owners should refrain from cashing out their flats without thinking through their subsequent housing plans.”

Mr Khaw added that several Build-to-Order (BTO) launches, since May, had stabilised new HDB flat prices. For newlywed first-timers, BTO prices have remained affordable.

Regarding second-timers, the minister commented that “the issue is more complicated as they rely more on the resale market and our influence over the resale market is indirect.”

“The current resale prices are the results of an imbalance in supply and demand. We are taking active steps to re-balance them, but we need time,” he noted.

房地产公司搞民生？难道哪家房地产公司会如HDB 那样负责组屋的维修，升级，翻建乃至提供租赁屋给给低收入者？
建屋局隶属于国家发展部，乃是政府机构，与财政部控股的淡马锡又有多少相同之处？要说新加坡最大房地产公司，那当然是淡马锡旗下的capitaland，也就是之前的DBS land

HDB 每年都有报表，其亏损更多来自老组屋翻建维护.
能精确预测若干年后的市场状况，只怕许本人也无法如此自负。从他频频发言提醒公众谨慎购屋，担忧房价下行， 可看出其对本地产前景忧心忡忡。

这些日子股市一片惨淡，ERA还花钱请人排队购屋，倒也颇有趣味。