年关将近，公司出业绩，分析员出报告，散户忙着读报告.但发现近期分析员报告差异越来越大，让人如坠云雾。例如：昨天下午收到辉立发来，其中有

STARHUB ：
cimb remains OUTPERFORM with target price $3.66
csfb remains UNDERPERFORM with target price $2.92
gs remains a BUY
lehman remaisn OVERWEIGHT with target price $3.80
macquarie remains UNDERPERFORM with target price $2.65
nomura remains STRONG BUY (review)
ubs remains a BUY with target price $3.45 (from $3.15)
bnp remains a BUY with target price $3.45(from $3.34)
daiwa upgraded to OUTPERFORM from Hold with target priec $3.42 (from $3)
jpm remains OVERWEIGHT with target price $4.10 (from $4)
nomura downgraded to BUY from Strong Buy with target price $3.52
ml remains NEUTRAL
ocbc downgraded to HOLD from Buy with target price $3.24

13家分析员给的报告，分歧如此之大,TP 从$2.65到$4.10，涵盖了除“sell"之外的所有评级！

本来，针对公司同一期业绩，分析员报告有出入并不奇怪。但Starhub并非很难分析预测的行业，三分天下占其一，而分析员报告如此”五彩缤纷“，实在叫人大跌眼镜。大概多少折射出他们对新加坡后期大市发展的内向困惑与不确定。

for TA type of report, mostly i delete straight-away, else i will spend a few second in the chart, and do not waste time in reading the words .

for fundamental type, you should understand that every report comes with a reason, perhaps news in management, new business action, or new financial report released..etc

what i look at:
1. what are the news? are they supported by strong and substantial evidences, or just "forcast"? note that do not believe "forcast" too much, coz in bear, forcast will never come true; in bull, no need forcast to rise share price at all...

2. most important infor is the financail data with comparision of previous few years. this is very important to check the company's health condition. (surely, if you wanna do full body check, then go and read they full year report over last 5 years.) also, this is good for seeing the trend of the firm, involving growth rate, leverage..etc

what not to lood at:
at this point, i am still a bit confused, that is why i post a query this morning. i think their target price has no much substantial meaning to the investors, except the intuition of company's future. but this is very subjective, and should not be considered as part of valuation.


pls comment..guys.

thanks

对于那些很容易分析的行业,目标价的判断居然也出现了严重的分歧.大家的方向步调不一致,很难形成一种大的趋势.

雨总会下的,天总会晴的.现在到处都是雾,还是呆在家里吧,就不要到处乱跑了.

不同的分析员得到的管理层消息未必一样, 从管理层那里套信息的水准也有高下, 分析员也有懒惰的勤劳的, 有下厂子下地去看的,也有纯粹运行一下模型了事的, 有的还要为自己的机构服务, TP就有些人为的成分在里面...

百张嘴有百个答案不算奇怪,总不能全靠他们, 全靠他们就有钱赚那他们自己改行算了.

话说回来, 这些报告有时侯提供的分析方式和总结的数据还是很有参考价值的.

follow那些最准的或者比较准的。


横向比较各个投行分析员的意见没太大的意义。。。还不如到大街上抓个路人就问，singtel, m1, starhub，你选那个？

1)这是基本面分析的宿命吗? 最近有高人面提,谓之"真正的基本面外人不可能知道,还不如不知道",他讲的对吗?

2)我的水平原本就不如分析员,那我光看报表之类,还有必要往基本面上努力吗?

3)正如21兄所言,当人人如雾里看花时,是不是大盘发出的一种警示信号?

上面三点我都不能确定,困惑中.

各位仁兄讲的都有一定道理,很有启发.

目标价吗,反正是个目标,放在那看看等着的. 但这么乱的TP确实第一次遇到.

太厉害:)

不过，谢谢上任斑竹了。

就算盈利一样 估值也有可能不一样的阿

当然 analysts也确实大部分都是 很扯的...