分析员报告－－教我如何相信谁？年关将近，公司出业绩，分析员出报告，散户忙着读报告.但发现近期分析员报告差异越来越大，让人如坠云雾。例如：昨天下午收到辉立发来，其中有
STARHUB ：
cimb remains OUTPERFORM with target price $3.66
csfb remains UNDERPERFORM with target price $2.92
gs remains a BUY
lehman remaisn OVERWEIGHT with target price $3.80
macquarie remains UNDERPERFORM with target price $2.65
nomura remains STRONG BUY (review)
ubs remains a BUY with target price $3.45 (from $3.15)
bnp remains a BUY with target price $3.45(from $3.34)
daiwa upgraded to OUTPERFORM from Hold with target priec $3.42 (from $3)
jpm remains OVERWEIGHT with target price $4.10 (from $4)
nomura downgraded to BUY from Strong Buy with target price $3.52
ml remains NEUTRAL
ocbc downgraded to HOLD from Buy with target price $3.24
13家分析员给的报告，分歧如此之大,TP 从$2.65到$4.10，涵盖了除“sell"之外的所有评级！
本来，针对公司同一期业绩，分析员报告有出入并不奇怪。但Starhub并非很难分析预测的行业，三分天下占其一，而分析员报告如此”五彩缤纷“，实在叫人大跌眼镜。大概多少折射出他们对新加坡后期大市发展的内向困惑与不确定。
[空空如也 (11-6 12:53, Long long ago)]
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哈哈，不如空空兄给个目标价吧[ghorse (11-6 13:01, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]2楼
(引用 ghorse:哈哈，不如空空兄给个目标价吧)很多分析员混饭吃的[邻家男人 (11-6 13:05, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]3楼
信自己：）[枫叶雨叶 (11-6 13:26, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]4楼
i do in this way =>for TA type of report, mostly i delete straight-away, else i will spend a few second in the chart, and do not waste time in reading the words .
for fundamental type, you should understand that every report comes with a reason, perhaps news in management, new business action, or new financial report released..etc
what i look at:
1. what are the news? are they supported by strong and substantial evidences, or just "forcast"? note that do not believe "forcast" too much, coz in bear, forcast will never come true; in bull, no need forcast to rise share price at all...
2. most important infor is the financail data with comparision of previous few years. this is very important to check the company's health condition. (surely, if you wanna do full body check, then go and read they full year report over last 5 years.) also, this is good for seeing the trend of the firm, involving growth rate, leverage..etc
what not to lood at:
at this point, i am still a bit confused, that is why i post a query this morning. i think their target price has no much substantial meaning to the investors, except the intuition of company's future. but this is very subjective, and should not be considered as part of valuation.
pls comment..guys.
thanks[banban (11-6 14:12, Long long ago)]
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空空想强调的不是目标价,而是对目标价判断的差异性对于那些很容易分析的行业,目标价的判断居然也出现了严重的分歧.大家的方向步调不一致,很难形成一种大的趋势.
雨总会下的,天总会晴的.现在到处都是雾,还是呆在家里吧,就不要到处乱跑了.[21 (11-6 14:33, Long long ago)]
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根本上来说, ER只是提供参考而已不同的分析员得到的管理层消息未必一样, 从管理层那里套信息的水准也有高下, 分析员也有懒惰的勤劳的, 有下厂子下地去看的,也有纯粹运行一下模型了事的, 有的还要为自己的机构服务, TP就有些人为的成分在里面...
百张嘴有百个答案不算奇怪,总不能全靠他们, 全靠他们就有钱赚那他们自己改行算了.
话说回来, 这些报告有时侯提供的分析方式和总结的数据还是很有参考价值的.
[临江仙 (11-6 14:34, Long long ago)]
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如果你真的参考分析员的意见，你应该对每个分析员的名字做个profilingfollow那些最准的或者比较准的。
横向比较各个投行分析员的意见没太大的意义。。。还不如到大街上抓个路人就问，singtel, m1, starhub，你选那个？[speculatist (11-6 17:18, Long long ago)]
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面对如此 "百花齐放"的分析员报告,我寻思的是1)这是基本面分析的宿命吗? 最近有高人面提,谓之"真正的基本面外人不可能知道,还不如不知道",他讲的对吗?
2)我的水平原本就不如分析员,那我光看报表之类,还有必要往基本面上努力吗?
3)正如21兄所言,当人人如雾里看花时,是不是大盘发出的一种警示信号?
上面三点我都不能确定,困惑中.
各位仁兄讲的都有一定道理,很有启发.[巴伐利雅 (11-6 20:11, Long long ago)]
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我觉得, 目前阶段,看分析员报告不如看图表直接.[雪狐 (11-6 20:14, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]10楼
(引用 speculatist:如果你真的参考分析员的意见，你应该对每个分析员的名字做个profilingfollow那些最准的或者比较准的。 横向比较各个投行分析员的意见没...)singtel, 所以我买singtel 涡轮。 ：）[念奴娇 (11-6 20:21, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]11楼
我了解有的技术派分析师给出的报告错位百出, 每天变呀变的.而基础面分析一般还比较好,目标价吗,反正是个目标,放在那看看等着的. 但这么乱的TP确实第一次遇到.
[空空如也 (11-6 20:22, Long long ago)]
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(引用 念奴娇:singtel, 所以我买singtel 涡轮。 ：）)我买M1! 不和阿娇争,争不过的太厉害:)[邻家男人 (11-6 20:27, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]13楼
(引用 空空如也:我了解有的技术派分析师给出的报告错位百出, 每天变呀变的.而基础面分析一般还比较好,目标价吗,反正是个目标,放在那看看等着的. 但这么乱...)是啊，应该给他们写信，素质，注意素质。[念奴娇 (11-6 20:50, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]14楼
看起来这给出的TP还是正态分布;p[分析一下 (11-6 20:55, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]15楼
(引用 banban:i do in this way =>for TA type of report, mostly i delete straight-away, else i will spend a few second in the chart, and do not...)i think this worth more than a 草花...[Economist (11-7 15:05, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]16楼
(引用 Economist:i think this worth more than a 草花...)没关系，最重要的是知识的切磋和共享。不过，谢谢上任斑竹了。[banban (11-7 16:11, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]17楼
starhub的盈利分析不简单的 鬼知道iptv对它的cable影响多少就算盈利一样 估值也有可能不一样的阿
当然 analysts也确实大部分都是 很扯的...[AXL (11-8 0:40, Long long ago)]
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