(引用 tdy:开个户头和做股票一样，不过交易就只是卖出，完了就等收钱)国内一般就像凡人一样有一笔买房或买车的钱闲着，就丢进国债特别是像周末，月末，长假之前，不让钱闲着，而且这些期间资金也会相对收紧，收益会较好。[tdy (8-22 12:46, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]141楼
(引用 大叔一名:继续投资大业（之一）通常电影第一部卖座就会拍续集。不过续集通常都比较烂。估摸着我的故事也差不多，大家对付着看吧。都是最近的事，也...)一直看到大叔的这个帖子，今天又耐心的全文从第一页爬到了最后一页~~爬到最后还惊喜的发现自己被提及了>_< 感谢大叔！
（爬完文后最大的感想是，啊，保守派版杀的大叔原来，赚钱能力、风险管理能力、思路和眼光都很棒~~~我要学习的还有很多啊>_< 期待哪次版杀能做有默契的队友哈哈）
关于大叔给的建议，我来学习一下大叔的方法，分析一下自己的现状：
我们今年即将拿到公民和PR，首要问题是解决自己的住房问题。BTO和EC都需要很长的等待时间。买房自住和投资不一样，首要还是先提高生活质量。
所以可能先买resale的房住两年，apply BTO/EC，三年后搬去新房卖旧房。。。
不过这样的话，可能十年间购房都很有限制。无法像大叔那样十年变四套。。。T_T
P.S.1. 向大家剧透预告一下大叔的下一章节，大叔最近已经果断在伦敦买房了。（仰望人生赢家ing~~~）
P.S.2. 我越俎代庖的，把大叔这帖里的章节都打了个小花，便于大家阅读。[小妖霖霖 (8-22 16:45, Long long ago)]
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(引用 小妖霖霖:一直看到大叔的这个帖子，今天又耐心的全文从第一页爬到了最后一页~~爬到最后还惊喜的发现自己被提及了>_< 感谢大叔！ （爬完文后最大的...)小妖，RESALE你得住五年。。。[凡人 (8-22 17:16, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]143楼
(引用 凡人:小妖，RESALE你得住五年。。。)她说的没错，resale住两年然后 申请BTO、EC（估计要3年），这样就5年了新房再5年，10年就没了~[haidaoyu (8-22 17:20, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]144楼
(引用 haidaoyu:她说的没错，resale住两年然后 申请BTO、EC（估计要3年），这样就5年了新房再5年，10年就没了~)嗯，这样算是对的，我理解错了[凡人 (8-22 17:23, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]145楼
(引用 小妖霖霖:一直看到大叔的这个帖子，今天又耐心的全文从第一页爬到了最后一页~~爬到最后还惊喜的发现自己被提及了>_< 感谢大叔！ （爬完文后最大的...)我觉得没戏以你和你老公的能力，等你买了resale 2年后，肯定过了ceiling了 [本文发送自华新手机Wap版] [灵山 (8-22 18:01, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]146楼
(引用 灵山:我觉得没戏以你和你老公的能力，等你买了resale 2年后，肯定过了ceiling了)ec的ceiling是一万二我老公phd还没毕业还在改论文，还是0工作经验呢。。。
缺点啊我是觉得十年下来都只能守着一套房子，跟大叔这经历对比下来差距太大。。。T_T 而且五年后那套也要考虑学区房的问题了。。。
不过闲钱还有很多用途可以用，以及我们收入比不上大叔的贷款能力。。。我才工作两年就整天盼着做家庭主妇了怎么破！
[本文发送自华新iOS APP]
[小妖霖霖 (8-22 18:06, Long long ago)]
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(引用 小妖霖霖:ec的ceiling是一万二我老公phd还没毕业还在改论文，还是0工作经验呢。。。 缺点啊我是觉得十年下来都只能守着一套房子，跟大叔这经历对�...)满满滴+1我还很开心的想要是以后超过一万二就有借口辞职在家玩，啊不是，是照顾家里啦 [本文发送自华新iOS APP] [Eight (8-22 18:11, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]148楼
(引用 Eight:满满滴+1我还很开心的想要是以后超过一万二就有借口辞职在家玩，啊不是，是照顾家里啦)我也是这么想的，星星眼～～～可我觉得就算超不过一万二我还是想家里蹲。。。。 [本文发送自华新iOS APP] [小妖霖霖 (8-22 18:12, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]149楼
(引用 大叔一名:继续投资大业（之一）通常电影第一部卖座就会拍续集。不过续集通常都比较烂。估摸着我的故事也差不多，大家对付着看吧。都是最近的事，也...)期待大叔的宝贵经验转篇文章吧，大叔能否抽空对下面的文章看法？即对流通性，杠杆，分散投资和market timing的考量？
Stocks versus property. Why I prefer stocks over property.（zt）
Singaporeans love the property market. The fact that it took our government seven anti-speculative measures to dampen Singaporeans' love affair with property since 2007 is evidence that it is very hard to break this strong love. In the meantime, the lack of success is not exactly bad news to the government. They have made 1 billion in tax revenues from the property curbs.
There is substantial anecdotal evidence that more Singaporeans made more money from property than stocks. Just ask and look around. Our parents' generation who dared to invest in property have secured their retirement. It is small wonder the next generation will do the same thing since property investments have worked for decades for so many people.
I have peers who took the plunge and invested a second property 5 years ago. I am sure they are doing quite well. Some have urged me to stop hoarding my money and take a plunge into the property market. Another told me I will never become rich because of my steadfast refusal to take the risk to buy a second property. I probably look stupid to these people. However, I think it is fine to look stupid for good reasons which will be explained here.
In one sentence why I refused to buy an investment property - I cannot control risk with property investments with the same ease as stocks.
Given the very high property prices in Singapore and my own financial resources, I only have enough money to buy 1 property for investment. Only 1. What can be more concentrated than that? The lack of diversification makes it hard to manage risk. With stocks, I can construct a portfolio of 30 stocks with not a single one taking up more than 5% of my net-worth. I can afford to make several mistakes without facing financial ruin. Can the same be said with a concentrated property portfolio consisting of only 1 property? To make matters worse, this single property has to be bought with leverage. How many Singaporeans can buy a property with cash? When an investor uses leverage, his margin of error is greatly reduced. The mortgage debt is usually quite substantial because it can take 20-30 years to repay with today's high property prices. It is quite common to pay 25% cash with the rest using borrowed money to purchase a property. The investor loses 20% when the property drops 5%. Leverage introduces the risk of margin call. Although banks seldom ask borrowers to top up their mortgage loan when property price drops, they are legally allowed to do so. If the borrower misses the interest payment because he loses his job, the bank may foreclose and force-sell his property in a battered-down market at a lousy price. With stocks, there is no need to use leverage. One can build a diversified portfolio with as little as SGD30000 with cash.
Value investors tend to steer clear of bubbles. I do not shun participation in a bubble if the underlying asset is liquid. The end period of a stock bubble is historically characterized by a parabolic rise of stocks in a short time. Being out of the market at this stage means missing out the opportunity to make lots of money in a short time. Thus, I will join in the crowd despite knowing that it is a stock bubble, although only a manageable portion of the net-worth will be inside the market. (Don't try this if you are a newbie in the stock market, particularly if you have yet to suffer gut-wrenching losses) The reason why I dare to join the bubble is that stocks are liquid. The moment danger is sensed, one can get the hell out in a single trading day. This is one of the advantages of being a retail investor with a small fund to manage. It makes risk management much easier. Properties are illiquid with high transaction costs. Unlike an equity investor, there is no way for a property investor to get the hell out even if he desperately wants to because of property's illiquid nature.
If a hired fund manager shows me a portfolio with a highly leveraged, super-concentrated and illiquid portfolio, I will sack him straightaway so that I can sleep better. How to manage risk with a portfolio like that? Middle-class Singaporeans who took on a 20-year mortgage to buy an investment property are doing just that.
Besides the inability to manage risk, there is another good reason to avoid property investments. I hate debt intensely. The only time I overcame this hate was to buy my first residential HDB Singapore flat so that I can marry the love of my life. While this article frowns on property investment, a HDB flat is highly desirable. One motivation foreigners convert to become a Singapore citizen is to have the privilege to buy our HDB flats. Particularly for Singaporeans who have sacrificed for National Service, don't ever miss your privilege to buy a HDB flat. It is almost a sure-win as it is subsidized by the government. Besides, everyone needs a roof over our heads that provides the stability for us to marry and start a family.
Buying an investment property today usually involves taking on a huge debt that requires at least 20 years to repay. This makes a person a financial slave. If the goal of investment is to be financially free, then does it make sense to take on so much debt for an investment that it risk making one a slave for the next 20 years? It is not just money anymore. It is freedom. With a heavy debt, a person has to tolerate bullies at work. It is easy to slip into mental depression if a person has to drag his feet every day to work in an environment that drives him crazy. Although my present workplace is wonderful and I am working with and for pleasant and smarter people at the moment, there is no guarantee that this can continue. The advantage of investing and saving hard is to accumulate enough "fuck-you" money to have the freedom to show the middle finger and quit when faced with unreasonable behavior at work. Buying a second property at this point will take away all the "fuck-you" money that I have painstakingly accumulated over the years.
For high net-worth individuals with enough money to buy up multiple properties with cash, property is an appropriate component in this investment portfolio. It is easier for the rich to manage risk in their property portfolio. For the majority of middle-class Singaporeans like me, I think they should think twice before committing to a highly leveraged, concentrated and illiquid investment that can potentially make a slave out of them for the next 20 years.[新股新人 (8-22 18:32, Long long ago)]
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(引用 小妖霖霖:一直看到大叔的这个帖子，今天又耐心的全文从第一页爬到了最后一页~~爬到最后还惊喜的发现自己被提及了>_< 感谢大叔！
（爬完文后最大的...)我是这么看的目前EC和Condo的价差为400-450psf。（昨天听来的，未考证，应该差不多）买1000sqf的EC，价差为400K。算你要等3年，租金120K，HDB Grant 30K，实际多250K。
所以1是N年后你买EC还能实现250K价差吗？2是直接买总MOP大约少两三年。3是5年后你要卖HDB行情未必乐观。
当然，还有其他的因素，包括对收入的预期，非量化因素等等。上面只是纯从价格角度。[大叔一名 (8-22 18:35, Long long ago)]
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(引用 小妖霖霖:我也是这么想的，星星眼～～～可我觉得就算超不过一万二我还是想家里蹲。。。。)你们两个没做过家庭主妇的拿衣服想法做家庭主妇好累的，好不好？绝对不比上班轻松。[大叔一名 (8-22 18:38, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]152楼
(引用 大叔一名:你们两个没做过家庭主妇的拿衣服想法做家庭主妇好累的，好不好？绝对不比上班轻松。)谁说不可以做家庭主妇同时也有女佣的？虽然拿衣服可是我真的很想不工作至少一阵子，旅游，充电，学点东西，等等（想法很美好，实际。。。）。虽然这些工作的时候也可以完成，但我就是那么懒。。。业余时间都玩掉了。。。 [本文发送自华新iOS APP] [小妖霖霖 (8-22 18:54, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]153楼
(引用 大叔一名:继续投资大业（之一）通常电影第一部卖座就会拍续集。不过续集通常都比较烂。估摸着我的故事也差不多，大家对付着看吧。都是最近的事，也...)感觉不错，房版牛人竟然跟我形似且神似，不同之处仅仅在于处在不同的人生阶段。[flyover2010 (8-22 19:57, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]154楼
(引用 新股新人:期待大叔的宝贵经验转篇文章吧，大叔能否抽空对下面的文章看法？即对流通性，杠杆，分散投资和market timing的考量？ Stocks versus pro...)真是个好文章啊。[flyover2010 (8-22 20:11, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]155楼
(引用 tdy:国内一般就像凡人一样有一笔买房或买车的钱闲着，就丢进国债特别是像周末，月末，长假之前，不让钱闲着，而且这些期间资金也会相对收紧，...)新加坡有逆回购吗？收益如何？我还正考虑把钱转回国呢。人不在新加坡，钱留在新加坡，实在不知道投资啥。[hula (8-23 5:19, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]156楼
(引用 昌昊:觉得要买房的最后一批鸭子都进笼了，这市场也就完了。现在是买房不如炒股。我公司有个最顽固的不买房的菲律宾人，我劝他了两年，他死活就...)此时无为胜有为，昌大不是如此吗？杰出的将军不在于兵多，而在于用兵准。[flyover2010 (8-23 8:41, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]157楼
(引用 新股新人:期待大叔的宝贵经验转篇文章吧，大叔能否抽空对下面的文章看法？即对流通性，杠杆，分散投资和market timing的考量？
Stocks versus pro...)个人看法这篇文章比较房产和股票（或股票基金？）
流通性：确实股票比较好，5分钟就可以卖掉。普通的基金大概1天。但房产的流通性也没有那么不好。你如果愿意出少过市价5-10%，即使是市场坏的时候，一两个星期大概就卖掉了。你说这不是有损失？是有。但如果你手上有一些小股票，你想立刻卖掉，一样会有这样的损失。所以我觉得房产的流通性近似不活跃的小股票。当然，我比较忌讳一些完全一手市场主导的地方，例如Iskandar，中国。
杠杆：杠杆是两刃剑。不利用杠杆，我们小市民永远都买不到大东西。自住的房子也不大可能存够全款吧。投资角度，杠杆是有效提高ROE的方法。而房产大概是唯一小市民可以拿到低利率贷款的途径。文章里说贷款多，精神紧张。这个看各人吧，我的贷款租客在帮我还，我精神还满爽的。当然，杠杆也是让你快速破产的途径，这个不用多解释。所以，很明显的道理就是我们需要杠杆，但要控制杠杆比率。那种20倍杠杆的外汇或期货，可以自己猜存活比例。之前有版友私信问我为什么要卖Town House，收租供贷款不够吗？是够，但在当时的情况下，杠杆比率太高。另外，买股票就没有杠杆吗？99%的上市公司都有杠杆，你不是很察觉而已。他们怎么利用杠杆你根本控制不到。
分散投资：房产投资确实有这个问题。你买个房子，其他的投资都差不多可以忽略不计了。不过说实话，我越来越不相信分散投资了。不知道你有没有觉得这个世界相关性越来越大。从整体角度，一出问题所有投资类别都会出问题。和杠杆加在一起，我的主要考虑是，既然出问题我跑不了，我顶得住吗？这就是我前面有写的压力测试。你会看到我假设坏事会同时发生，同样因为我认为相关性大。
Market timing：这个问题很广。你有能力做得到当然可以，我也相信有人做得到，问题在于你做得到吗？分短期和中长期说吧。短期股票买卖要去问财版的高手，我自认没这个能力，我的工作也不大适合做这事。短期房产买卖就更糟糕了，因为成本很高。从中长期看，我越来越觉得我没能力找到适合的股票。这次危机前读过一篇文章说，大家经常说美国股市过去100年平均回报8%。那如果你100年前买了一只股票，现在怎样了呢？除非你买了IBM，其它的都死了。2，30年代，你看到了汽车会是发展点，买了汽车股呢？好像GM，Ford都不是当时的主要玩家。当然，今天看来，就算你买了GM，Ford，也悲剧了。我没有考证过，但同意他的看法。很难找到一只股票长时间保持好的表现。所以我的SRS买ETF和REIT而已。中长期的房产，说实话我也不清楚。所以我买房子坚持需要合理的租金回报。那就算价格跌了，我的压力测试没问题，就拿住慢慢供好了。N年后，房子供完了，多少有些价值吧。
[大叔一名 (8-23 12:18, Long long ago)]
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(引用 大叔一名:继续投资大业（之一）通常电影第一部卖座就会拍续集。不过续集通常都比较烂。估摸着我的故事也差不多，大家对付着看吧。都是最近的事，也...)请问一下大叔，外国人在英国买freehold可以贷款么？如果可以，能贷房价或收入的多少？租金回报率怎样？谢谢额~~[789456 (8-23 12:59, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]159楼
(引用 789456:请问一下大叔，外国人在英国买freehold可以贷款么？如果可以，能贷房价或收入的多少？租金回报率怎样？谢谢额~~)别急，我会把我知道的信息都写出来的，这样可以多骗几个十大其实是因为大叔码字超慢。刚刚写那个回复累死。[大叔一名 (8-23 13:08, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]160楼