About 49,700 new homes expected to enter the market by FY2015, following FY2014’s 50,000 new completions, said OCBC and reported in the media.

The figure is expected to increase to 73,600 by FY2016, with the estimates including DBSS, HDB and Executive Condominium (EC) completions.

“Assuming a six million population target by 2020 from the latest population white paper, we forecast average population growth at approximately 86,000 individuals per annum from 2014 to 2020,” said OCBC.

“Assuming a conservative three persons per household, this translates to an incremental demand of approximately 29,000 physical homes per year, which points to a fairly clear physical oversupply situation ahead.”

But OCBC cautioned the level of unsold pipeline held by developers currently stands at 36,000 units. This is significantly lower compared to the historical 10-year average of 41,000 units.

“While developers are likely to ease prices ahead to move inventory, we do not foresee a fire-sale situation – similarly because of the strong balance sheets for large developers,” said OCBC.
---
该帖荣获当日十大第3，奖励楼主15分以及22华新币，时间：2014-11-19 22:00:02。
---
该帖荣获当日十大第5，奖励楼主10分以及15华新币，时间：2014-11-20 22:00:04。
---
该帖荣获当日十大第10，奖励楼主1分以及1华新币，时间：2014-11-30 22:00:03。

毕竟都是自家血汗钱 房子这种大额投资 一定要慎之又慎 目前依据数据看 直到2016都是下行通道 下降多少 很难说 也要看美国加息 想想美国加息就怕 小心小心啊

和以前大不相同 如果没有刚需 （譬如有了孩子） 最好等等 先租个房间观望 同时积攒现金 也是可行的

欢迎讨论 集思广益

多方位全面思考 市场的规律是不会以人为意志转移的
有两个房子 只有一个人买 供需的失衡 很有可能导致价格速度下滑 一定要谨慎啊

中国发展放缓已经是事实
日本欧洲也积重难返
唯有美国一家蒸蒸日上
不得不佩服美国的国家战略

幅员辽阔 人口众多 加之科技 创新 未来若无重大转折性的事件 应该依旧是一超多强的时代

这也是文化的一种韧性和包容性
美国批评QE的也很多