以下统计来自 the encyclopedia of chart patterns 一书。
Appearance - Looks like a cup profile with the handle on the right
Reversal or consolidation - Short-term (up to 3 months) bullish consolidation
Failure rate - 26%
Failure rate if waited for breakout - 10%
Average rise - 38%, with most likely rise between 10% and 20%
Throwbacks - 74%
Percentage meeting predicted price target - 49% using full formation height, 73% using half
formation height
Surprising finding - Cups with a higher right lip perform better, 40% versus 35 % average gain.
以上统计说明了这种图形的做法,一是突破后立即跟进,那么这个图形失败率只有10%,还是很可靠的。二是突破后等回扯时再买,突破后有74%的概率有回扯。即4次中有3次可以等到。Average rise is 38%, with most likely rise between 10% and 20%。
回到courage和sunshine上面,都发生回扯了,但回扯得太深,使吾有点弄不明白。但是,我不认为图形已经失败,所以继续持有。