courage marine 和 sunshine的图形怎么会失败呢？ 以下统计来自 the encyclopedia of chart patterns 一书。 Appearance - Looks like a cup profile with the handle on the right Reversal or consolidation - Short-term (up to 3 months) bullish consolidation Failure rate - 26% Failure rate if waited for breakout - 10% Average rise - 38%, with most likely rise between 10% and 20% Throwbacks - 74% Percentage meeting predicted price target - 49% using full formation height, 73% using half formation height Surprising finding - Cups with a higher right lip perform better, 40% versus 35 % average gain. 以上统计说明了这种图形的做法，一是突破后立即跟进，那么这个图形失败率只有10%，还是很可靠的。二是突破后等回扯时再买，突破后有74%的概率有回扯。即4次中有3次可以等到。Average rise is 38%, with most likely rise between 10% and 20%。 回到courage和sunshine上面，都发生回扯了，但回扯得太深，使吾有点弄不明白。但是，我不认为图形已经失败，所以继续持有。