以下统计来自 the encyclopedia of chart patterns 一书。

Appearance - Looks like a cup profile with the handle on the right

Reversal or consolidation - Short-term (up to 3 months) bullish consolidation

Failure rate - 26%

Failure rate if waited for breakout - 10%

Average rise - 38%, with most likely rise between 10% and 20%

Throwbacks - 74%

Percentage meeting predicted price target - 49% using full formation height, 73% using half
formation height

Surprising finding - Cups with a higher right lip perform better, 40% versus 35 % average gain.


以上统计说明了这种图形的做法，一是突破后立即跟进，那么这个图形失败率只有10%，还是很可靠的。二是突破后等回扯时再买，突破后有74%的概率有回扯。即4次中有3次可以等到。Average rise is 38%, with most likely rise between 10% and 20%。


回到courage和sunshine上面，都发生回扯了，但回扯得太深，使吾有点弄不明白。但是，我不认为图形已经失败，所以继续持有。