扫地大妈开始分享tips是一个
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该帖荣获当日十大第2，奖励楼主18分以及27华新币，时间：2024-10-02 22:00:01。
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该帖荣获当日十大第1，奖励楼主25分以及37华新币，时间：2024-10-03 22:00:01。
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该帖荣获当日十大第3，奖励楼主7分以及10华新币，时间：2024-10-04 22:00:01。

巧了你会像某大姐感恩中国，但大概率会输掉底裤

感叹一下

但是，这不是在market timing，这是在挥舞洛阳铲，从历史中汲取教训。当然，肯定没卵用，因为：人类从历史中汲取的教训就是，从不汲取历史教训！

但斌称他辛辛苦苦在美股上折腾的那点收益，还不如他的同事这几天的中国组合的收益。
逃顶还不是时候，也没有一个技术指标能判断，就像抄底一样，
但是策略还是要制定，就像抄底一样，有备无患。
今年八月初，就开始制定抄底条件，
1，指数底部形态无非两种，尖底（右侧放大量），圆底（缩量缓慢爬坡，个股较多，大盘很少）
2，指数周线日线共振背离（实际上没有发生，圆底形态常有）
3，三大指数同时新低，同时放量。（实际上，没有发生）
4，底分型构造，一般要三个交易日，可能错绝对低点，四个多月此类构造很多，前期的都是诱多。
应对就是2750附近不能空仓，至少半仓，做T，遇到大盘急跌满仓，
选股要求周线必须上升形态，且位于周线支撑附近，不能是微盘股，中等市值便于主力上仓位，有潜在题材。
现在来看完全正确，以前也抄底成功数次，但没有上满仓，这次特别强调上满仓，
现在就是持仓不动，对顶部的判断只要是大盘没有明显的缩量（不一定）都是持仓，另外就是后一次大分岐的不能低于前一次大分岐的低点（我的经验，屡试不爽）大分岐要大，要猛，不是说大盘就见顶，可能还会新高，但是大资金撤退进行时，如果成交量维持，呈现的是高位震荡。

如果确定就满仓，满仓，满仓，满仓！
如果相信就早下手，先手优势很重要！
好像彼得林奇说的。

想想如果是在日股，或者美股，或者德国股市，每三天买卖一次，就不是赌博了么？是，也不是。

赌博靠运气。对赌客来说概率总是那么稍稍小于50%。 久赌自然必输。 counting card会让赌客自己的胜率稍稍大于50%， 赌场自然会把这种“千人”拒之门外。

股市如果靠掷硬币就会必输，因为算上交易费就会形成稍稍损益比小于1的长久回报。但股市不同的地方在于一个人可以设计自己的损益比，也可以统计出自己的胜率。这和赌场从你进入大门那一刻开始就已经为你设计好了所有的损益比和概率是不同的。我想观念会决定一个人的做法。

农民是这个世界最大的赌徒，年头选一种作物耕种，年尾靠天吃饭。没法止损

以几千年来看农耕的平均收益还是大过打猎游牧的平均收益。

每个人找到自己擅长的策略就好。很多人以为自己的才是唯一真理，跟自己不一样的就是垃圾，异端。

能力和情商不是每次都正确，设置好止损和应对才是关键。
止损，止损，止损！
此前曾经两次满仓，前两次都失败了。
能力情商包括，经验，学识，逻辑。。。。。。。

持币进场算一个信号

听你讲的你现在应该满仓了是吧？我想问你啊，你是一直用这种“固定仓位”的策略吗？还是会分批加码的策略？

我一直以来就是用这种固定仓位的策略。比如一个标的从100涨到120，我可能买了100卖了104，接着买107卖了106止损，然后买107卖了110，然后买114卖了112.5，然后买了115卖了118。

同样的这只股票的走势其实如果我买了20%的仓位在100， 然后买了40%的仓位在104，然后买了40%的仓位在108，随后一路hold到118。交易盈利结果其实会大大的提高。但我会怕， 总有一种落袋为安的保守想法。 你会有这种想法吗？怎么克服呢？

不断增仓的策略，被许多投资者推崇，就是一路加仓只满仓，实现利润最大化。
但这里有个前提，就是标的的确定性，一只票开始没有人预测能走出来，所以开始都是小仓位，一旦票的辨识度提高，走势明确，开始主升，加仓是必然，国内柚子就是这么干的，也是国际上比较流行的做法。
所以每次加仓要评估票的确定性。

不利的因素是带来成本价提高，我对成本要求比较苛刻，一般不会直接这么做，而是在震荡攀升过程中不断做T，底仓要保留，摊低成本，等待上涨的确定性。这里面需要前期研究票充分。

因为长期关注几只票，股性熟悉，生疏的票容易做飞。
进入主升，就不要轻易卖，包括做T。

he uses 100+ charts to explain and demonstrate how he does the position sizing.

in <Reminiscences of a stock Operator>, Livermore explains his sizing operation also in details as follows:

Let us suppose, for example, that I am buying some stock. I'll buy two thousand shares at 110. If the stock goes
up to 111 after I buy it I am, at least temporarily, right in my operation, because it is a point higher; it shows me a profit. Well, because I am right I go in and buy another two thousand shares. If the market is still rising I buy a third lot of two thousand shares. Say the price goes up to 114. I think it is enough for the time being. I now have a trading basis to work from. I am long six thousand shares at an average of 111.75, and the stock is selling at 114. I won't buy any more just then. I wait and see. I figure that at some stage of the rise there is going to be a reaction. I want to see how the market takes care of itself after that reaction. It will probably react to where I got my third lot. Say that after going higher it falls back to 112.25, and then rallies. Well, just as it goes back to 113.75 I shoot an order to buy four thousand--at the market of course. Well, if I get that four thousand at 113.75 I know something is wrong and I’ll give a testing order--that is, I'll sell one thousand shares to see how the market takes it. But suppose that of the order to buy the four thousand shares that I put in when the price was 113.75 I get two thousand at 114 and five hundred at 114.25 and the rest on the way up so that for the last five hundred I pay 115.5. Then I know I am right. It is the way I get the four thousand shares that tells me whether I am right in buying that particular stock at that particular time--_for of course I am working on the assumption that I have checked up general conditions pretty well and they are bullish. I never want to buy stocks too cheap or too easily.

Both of them suggested a similar sound mathematical algorithm to size up the position which I 100% agree. what confuses me is "under what circumstances a trader should cut loss if he finally accumulates a full size swing", both of them didn't explain it and I kind of lost there.... At the moment I can only assume to get out at the same price if wrong after loading the full size (basically just scalping because one still has a tight room for error since it is a averaging up operation). I believe the above mentioned method is a true logical operation to stretch "risk-reward" further in a smarter way.

应该不止俩礼拜。