华新 - Scary chart - 狮城财经

Scary chart为什么刚才发不出来? errr

[AXL (9-7 17:42, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]1楼

自己顶上来值得一看的图不是说一定会crash. 只是希望大家保持一点保留一点risk management的心态

(of course u can argue the market condition is different， but this is not the point )[AXL (9-7 17:57, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]2楼

If history is by any guide,MACD indicator (and other major ones) are actually have a dead cross near 28/Sep 1987 and 7th Oct 1987, which warned everyone long there.

But Now, DOW just had its major indicators crossed lovely at the bottom,

this is Point One.

And

Before that, people actually did their business as usual, without any panic selling like previous 2 weeks in US.

I think only a lot of evidents(N>=30) can establish one point from statistical point of view.

Hope there are other more evidences to convince people :)[speculatist (9-7 17:59, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]3楼

(引用 speculatist:If history is by any guide,MACD indicator (and other major ones) are actually have a dead cross near 28/Sep 1987 and 7th Oct 198...)tat chart I saw it every time when correction comes!my udnerstading is " See Light Death" [xiaohu (9-7 18:01, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]4楼

(引用 speculatist:If history is by any guide,MACD indicator (and other major ones) are actually have a dead cross near 28/Sep 1987 and 7th Oct 198...)my point is not that history will repeatmy point is to remind ppl of risk.

anyway, we hav to be consistent in our logic to invest/speculate, i.e Why do we look at charts n technical indicators if we dun look at this? ^_^ (My taking is we dun look at either seriously, but i could hav argued the same thing 10 or 28 days ago n things panned out well, errr..against me)[AXL (9-7 18:02, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]5楼

(引用 AXL:my point is not that history will repeatmy point is to remind ppl of risk. anyway, we hav to be consistent in our logic to inve...)sometime courage is everything!courage makes me 80% hold on 17Aug. [xiaohu (9-7 18:06, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]6楼

(引用 xiaohu:sometime courage is everything!courage makes me 80% hold on 17Aug. )no point justifying ur rational by what has happenedif u hav oppty making less risky money, no point having so much courage.

i hold my view this is not the time to take big view of mkt n pair/event trading shld dominate. [AXL (9-7 18:10, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]7楼

(引用 AXL:no point justifying ur rational by what has happenedif u hav oppty making less risky money, no point having so much courage. i...)what I want to say had been repeated by many great investors in the history,I quote it below:

"people always have fear when they are supposed to have hope, and alwayse have hope when they are supposed to fear."

I am not a gambler, but I have courage.[xiaohu (9-7 18:17, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]8楼

(引用 xiaohu:what I want to say had been repeated by many great investors in the history,I quote it below: "people always have fear when the...)this is generally true but not always truen yet again it missed the point -

u shldnt have fear at the wrong time doesnt mean u shouldnt hav fear

my view is, as posted below n in msg to speculist, neutral on singapore mkt. (but this doesnt mean i dun buy)

great investor takes long term view, which i dun doubt, but are do u think they "bottom fishing" now (if this is really the bottom)?

^_^ i suspect they probably hav built positions a few years back.

[AXL (9-7 18:23, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]9楼

(引用 AXL:this is generally true but not always truen yet again it missed the point - u shldnt have fear at the wrong time doesnt mean u ...)wow, I have no comment.there is no such thing like "real bottom" because all the bottom are temporary.

cutloss need courage, but buy dip needs more![xiaohu (9-7 18:31, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]10楼

关于此图，请看http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance_best&MsgID=5203

1987年的市场大崩盘总是熊派爱抄的热门话题,

现在的熊气冲天和三月初市场刚大跌时是何其相似. 那会就已经有人对1987 和2007 作了对比.
看看当时的对比很有意思, 转贴如下:

1987 versus 2007
I keep repeating I am not a fan of the 1987 parallel to 2007. I am not saying its impossible -- just less likely than other potential parallels (My choice is 1973, Doug Kass' is 1937).
Yet many readers keep drawing my attention to the 1987 conclusion. As a service to those of you who find this compelling, here is an overlay of the chart several of you have sent in.

Dow Industrials 1986-87 - 2006-07

[img]http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/04/16/dow_8707_3.png[/img]

看上去真的很吓人.

结果,有好事者后来又重新作了对比, 不同的是归一成同样的尺度:

UPDATE: April 20, 2007 6:21am

This chart (courtesy of Charles) shows the scale of the run up between the two eras to be very different . . .

Dow 1987 and 2007, scaled to 100

[img]http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/04/20/dow8707.jpg[/img]

原来有这么大差别的图, 也可以弄的如此相似. (对比上图) 只要不成比例关系的放大就可以了.

所以, 不要自己吓自己.
[多空翻 (9-7 23:37, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]11楼

(引用多空翻:关于此图，请看http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance_best&MsgID=5203 1987年的市场大崩盘总是熊派爱抄的热门话题, �...)图

[多空翻 (9-7 23:40, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]12楼

(引用多空翻:图 ...)stk market is not science存在既是合理有次图就表示有会去看并且照此操作[AXL (9-8 2:08, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]13楼