http://web.wenxuecity.com/BBSView.php?SubID=finance_best&MsgID=5203

1987年的市场大崩盘总是熊派爱抄的热门话题,

现在的熊气冲天和三月初市场刚大跌时是何其相似. 那会就已经有人对1987 和2007 作了对比.
看看当时的对比很有意思, 转贴如下:


1987 versus 2007
I keep repeating I am not a fan of the 1987 parallel to 2007. I am not saying its impossible -- just less likely than other potential parallels (My choice is 1973, Doug Kass' is 1937).
Yet many readers keep drawing my attention to the 1987 conclusion. As a service to those of you who find this compelling, here is an overlay of the chart several of you have sent in.

Dow Industrials 1986-87 - 2006-07



[img]http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/04/16/dow_8707_3.png[/img]


看上去真的很吓人.


结果,有好事者后来又重新作了对比, 不同的是归一成同样的尺度:


UPDATE: April 20, 2007 6:21am


This chart (courtesy of Charles) shows the scale of the run up between the two eras to be very different . . .

Dow 1987 and 2007, scaled to 100

[img]http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/images/2007/04/20/dow8707.jpg[/img]


原来有这么大差别的图, 也可以弄的如此相似. (对比上图) 只要不成比例关系的放大就可以了.

所以, 不要自己吓自己.