本来难得在房产版看到高楼
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作者:-_-|| (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:3175) 发表:2014-11-19 23:41:57  楼主  关注此帖
小心为妙:新加坡住宅供应过剩严重!About 49,700 new homes expected to enter the market by FY2015, following FY2014’s 50,000 new completions, said OCBC and reported in the media. The figure is expected to increase to 73,600 by FY2016, with the estimates including DBSS, HDB and Executive Condominium (EC) completions. “Assuming a six million population target by 2020 from the latest population white paper, we forecast average population growth at approximately 86,000 individuals per annum from 2014 to 2020,” said OCBC. “Assuming a conservative three persons per household, this translates to an incremental demand of approximately 29,000 physical homes per year, which points to a fairly clear physical oversupply situation ahead.” But OCBC cautioned the level of unsold pipeline held by developers currently stands at 36,000 units. This is significantly lower compared to the historical 10-year average of 41,000 units. “While developers are likely to ease prices ahead to move inventory, we do not foresee a f (more...)
本来难得在房产版看到高楼
结果进来发现离题万里。
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作者:-_-|| (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:3175) 发表:2014-11-19 23:46:19  2楼
小心为妙:新加坡住宅供应过剩严重!About 49,700 new homes expected to enter the market by FY2015, following FY2014’s 50,000 new completions, said OCBC and reported in the media. The figure is expected to increase to 73,600 by FY2016, with the estimates including DBSS, HDB and Executive Condominium (EC) completions. “Assuming a six million population target by 2020 from the latest population white paper, we forecast average population growth at approximately 86,000 individuals per annum from 2014 to 2020,” said OCBC. “Assuming a conservative three persons per household, this translates to an incremental demand of approximately 29,000 physical homes per year, which points to a fairly clear physical oversupply situation ahead.” But OCBC cautioned the level of unsold pipeline held by developers currently stands at 36,000 units. This is significantly lower compared to the historical 10-year average of 41,000 units. “While developers are likely to ease prices ahead to move inventory, we do not foresee a f (more...)
这个数据是啥意思?
But OCBC cautioned the level of unsold pipeline held by developers currently stands at 36,000 units. This is significantly lower compared to the historical 10-year average of 41,000 units.
现在没卖掉的单位 即发展商的库存数低于过去10年平均库存?
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作者:-_-|| (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:3175) 发表:2014-11-20 09:31:03  3楼
你们是不是没人仔细看过这短话。。看我分析这篇文章都写了些啥。。About 49,700 new homes expected to enter the market by FY2015, 我的理解是2015年49700将要开卖(enter the market)? following FY2014’s 50,000 new completions, 2014是50000建成 (注意50000 new completion很明显是指建好了的,包括前几年卖出去的)。 said OCBC and reported in the media. 就是说2015年那个数据是ocbc说的,2014年那个数据是media说的?被某个文科小编呼啦一下拉到一起来让你感到好可怕? The figure is expected to increase to 73,600 by FY2016, with the estimates including DBSS, HDB and Executive Condominium (EC) completions. This figure是指新建成。就是说2016年新建成73600,这里面可能包括2015年50000个enter the market的(假设建的很快一年就建好)?并且新建成的73600很多都卖出去了吧。hdb什么的至少70%都已经卖出去了。当然有部分换房子的,但是不管怎样数据没那么可怕。 “Assuming a six million population target by 2020 from the latest population white paper, we forecast average population growth at approximately 86,000 individuals per annum from 2014 to (more...)
基本正确 不过明年49700应该也是指完工
楼主喊的 跟文章内容不大符合 逻辑上不对啊
我估计大家正在楼主来个大转折
所以不敢出声 免得掉进坑里
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作者:-_-|| (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:3175) 发表:2014-11-20 09:45:28  4楼
小心为妙:新加坡住宅供应过剩严重!About 49,700 new homes expected to enter the market by FY2015, following FY2014’s 50,000 new completions, said OCBC and reported in the media. The figure is expected to increase to 73,600 by FY2016, with the estimates including DBSS, HDB and Executive Condominium (EC) completions. “Assuming a six million population target by 2020 from the latest population white paper, we forecast average population growth at approximately 86,000 individuals per annum from 2014 to 2020,” said OCBC. “Assuming a conservative three persons per household, this translates to an incremental demand of approximately 29,000 physical homes per year, which points to a fairly clear physical oversupply situation ahead.” But OCBC cautioned the level of unsold pipeline held by developers currently stands at 36,000 units. This is significantly lower compared to the historical 10-year average of 41,000 units. “While developers are likely to ease prices ahead to move inventory, we do not foresee a f (more...)
早报网站的图片 更震撼

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作者:-_-|| (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:3175) 发表:2014-11-20 09:59:23  5楼
报纸上的文章都是拼拼凑凑的前些天读了一篇文章,某个大中介公司头头写的,觉得还不错。中心思想就是明后两年有大量公寓TOP。不管政府会不会放宽降温措施,放宽也许会带来买家,但不会带来租客。所以预期租金会受压。租金受压会带来房价的压力。他的结论是房价不会大升,但也不会大跌。
我们公司头头特别喜欢说
不喜欢写 估计不是我们公司的头头了。
短期 2-3年的供应过剩是事实。关键在于这个时期屋主能否扛得住 开发商能否扛得住。如果每个人都知道2-3年后市场会好转,扛不住的也变成扛得住了。
如果每个人觉得复苏遥遥无期,扛得住也变成扛不住了。
希望是个很神奇的东西。政府的态度暧昧,早就了今天市场的模棱两可。一边不放松降温政策,一边削减土地供应。
没有金融危机 没有经济危机 等等 打消希望的事情发生,后市难有大的起伏。这样 1st timer SC买家受益。政府受益,要知道15%的印花税不是盖的。开发商压力最大,其次才是现有超过一套房的屋主。
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作者:-_-|| (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:3175) 发表:2014-11-20 18:33:36  6楼
经济学小白求科普为啥美国加息,坡县就一定会跟着加息??我只知道现在世界上不同国家的利率完全不同啊。中国,澳洲、印度都很高,但新加坡 欧洲很低,欧洲甚至是负利率。。 美国是退出QE不假,但日本和欧洲刚刚开始QE啊 那为啥美国加息,坡县一定是跟着美国走呢??
汇率 利率 自由兑换
这三样 一个国家只可以干涉其中两样。
例如中国,汇率由政府控制,利率由政府控制,那么,货币就不能自由兑换,否则国际金融机构就有机会吃利差。
新加坡,汇率由政府控制,非自由浮动,货币兑换是自由的,那么政府是没办法控制利率的。想象一下,如果新加坡不跟随美国市场。新加坡的利率明显高于美国,那么会有大量资本流入新加坡转化为新币资产吃利差。造成政府控制汇率的压力。
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作者:-_-|| (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:3175) 发表:2014-11-20 20:55:53  7楼
听者有份吗?好久都没被请客了……
Christmas eve 来吧
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作者:-_-|| (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:3175) 发表:2014-11-20 20:56:34  8楼
你楼下 @-_-|| 刚刚拿了top sales大奖必须请客呀
Christmas eve 来吧。大家小聚一下。
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作者:-_-|| (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:3175) 发表:2014-11-20 21:05:29  9楼
听者有份?哈哈哈~
来吧来吧。
大家歪楼歪得厉害啊。
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作者:-_-|| (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:3175) 发表:2014-11-20 21:23:48  10楼
小心为妙:新加坡住宅供应过剩严重!About 49,700 new homes expected to enter the market by FY2015, following FY2014’s 50,000 new completions, said OCBC and reported in the media. The figure is expected to increase to 73,600 by FY2016, with the estimates including DBSS, HDB and Executive Condominium (EC) completions. “Assuming a six million population target by 2020 from the latest population white paper, we forecast average population growth at approximately 86,000 individuals per annum from 2014 to 2020,” said OCBC. “Assuming a conservative three persons per household, this translates to an incremental demand of approximately 29,000 physical homes per year, which points to a fairly clear physical oversupply situation ahead.” But OCBC cautioned the level of unsold pipeline held by developers currently stands at 36,000 units. This is significantly lower compared to the historical 10-year average of 41,000 units. “While developers are likely to ease prices ahead to move inventory, we do not foresee a f (more...)
补一个详细的

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