The UOL/UIC joint venture bought the 175 unit-Raintree Gardens in Potong Pasir for S$334 million (S$593 per square foot, per prop ratio – based on 2.8 plot ratio). The price is 6% above the previously reported indicative price of S$315 million. This is the second en-bloc sale of a privatised former HUDC estate this year. Shunfu Ville, Bishan was the first en-bloc sale this year in nine years at S$639 million (S$557 psf ppr).
Based on a plot ratio of 2.8, UOL/UIC could increase its gross floor area by 43%. We estimate that the breakeven (including estimated premium charges to extend leasehold period and plot ratio) to be S$1,160-1,260psf. Assuming the average selling price is the same as The Poiz Residences' (latest nearby new property that was launched) median price of S$1,447 psf, this translates to an estimated margin of 15-25%.
房地产开发是高风险行业, 盖房子本身从标到地算起一般需要三年以上,万一行情转坏就砸手里了。所以达不到一定的预期利润率,发展商是不会出手的。
通常发展商一标到地,预期售价马上就可以算出来。因为盖房子的费用和填补地契到99年的费用基本是固定的。
特殊情况下,发展商也会志在必得的以极高的价格标地。比如 Fraser Property 当年以比第二名高20%的价格标得Yishun North City的地。原因在于旁边的地也是它家的,他打算把两块地连起来。这种情况利润率可能会降低,但它有其他办法补回来。
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