以我之见短期指数会横排和向下调的可能性会高过向上。STI中地产和银行所占的比重相当大海事和资源来股已涨了一大段了，而地产和银行貌似又梆在一起。目前咱似乎看不到那些类股能推动股指上攀。
我持观望态度..[峰峦 (1-17 11:56, Long long ago)]
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咱对大市的推断还是瞒精准的，哈哈！为什么没花戴[峰峦 (1-19 10:11, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]2楼
(引用 峰峦:咱对大市的推断还是瞒精准的，哈哈！为什么没花戴)市场上多数人不愿去面对，貌似基金在撤离东南亚市场? 可能吗?[峰峦 (1-19 16:17, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]3楼
(引用 峰峦:市场上多数人不愿去面对，貌似基金在撤离东南亚市场? 可能吗?)哈哈！机会又快来了。[峰峦 (1-20 10:56, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]4楼
咱放了这么好的贴也没花戴，我想版主也认为故事一直会涨？哈哈今后少放贴为妙！[峰峦 (1-20 12:10, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]5楼
(引用 峰峦:哈哈！机会又快来了。)把这个顶上来。。。会不会调到3120以下？[茶几 (1-22 10:27, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]6楼
(引用 茶几:把这个顶上来。。。会不会调到3120以下？)咱从周线上看3143，要是破了咱可不敢进去了。[峰峦 (1-22 19:36, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]7楼
(引用 峰峦:市场上多数人不愿去面对，貌似基金在撤离东南亚市场? 可能吗?)转载
虽然尚处年初，但一个趋势似乎已经明朗，这就是买入发达国家市场的股票，远离新兴市场。
山姆大叔在领路。市场表现和资金流向都表明了这一点。去年，新兴市场和前沿市场还是众所关注的焦点，但今年整个情况完全逆转。这是为什么？你可能会很自然的想到埃及和突尼斯的动荡局势。但事实是，在这些突发事件出现之前，情势已经转向。
市场发生转向的重要原因是，尽管新兴市场仍然保持高速增长，但其股票价格已经开始变得昂贵。当每个人都进入新兴市场时，股价自然攀升。在复苏中的发达市场寻找价值洼地刺激了市场的初步转向，埃及和突尼斯陷入的内乱则巩固了这种转变，因为政治风险的问题开始浮现。
美银美林（Bank of America Merrill Lynch）的报告指出，截至2月3日的两周里，投资者已经从新兴市场股票共同基金里撤出了102亿美元的资金，单在上周就撤出了72亿美元。相比之下，资金大幅流入发达国家市场：截至2月3日的一周里，各类新基金总共流入46亿美元。
市场的表现也反映了这种变化。发达国家市场确是很热。从年初至今，道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数上涨5.3%，纳斯达克指数涨5.3%，巴黎CAC-40指数涨8%，德国DAX指数涨5.9%，伦敦富时100指数涨3.2%。新兴市场的表现呢？从年初至今，印度股市跌13%，中国股市跌1.2%，巴西股市跌5%，道琼斯中东和非洲市场指数（DJ Middle East & Africa Total Stock Market index）跌6.5%。
请牢记，就像上面说过的，新兴市场仍然引领全球经济增长的势头。非常偏爱新兴市场的汇丰银行（HSBC）预测，整个新兴市场2011年的经济增长率将达到6.4%，但该行也调高了发达国家市场的增长预期，从1.8%调升至2.3%。
这一次，市场上涨的动能似乎站在了发达市场这一边。
[峰峦 (2-9 16:43, Long long ago)]
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(引用 峰峦:转载 虽然尚处年初，但一个趋势似乎已经明朗，这就是买入发达国家市场的股票，远离新兴市场。 山姆大叔在领路。市场表现和资金流向都�...)过几天钱又回来了！[学生 (2-9 16:49, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]9楼
(引用 峰峦:转载
虽然尚处年初，但一个趋势似乎已经明朗，这就是买入发达国家市场的股票，远离新兴市场。
山姆大叔在领路。市场表现和资金流向都�...)Emerging risk and reward
By WONG WEI KONG
HOW quickly things can change. When it comes to fund flows, fickle at best, the shifts can be even marked.
As recently as the end of last year, all the talk in market circles was of a banner year for emerging markets in 2011. After all, the developed world had messed things up. The US remained mired in its troubles, and the eurozone was staring at a fiscal crisis. Emerging markets, in particular Asia, became the new hope, the beacon for all the smart money.
That was then. But just over a month into the new year, the smart money seems to be having a rethink.
Fund managers are starting to pull some of their money out of emerging markets and putting it back into developed markets, recent fund flow data shows.
Data from Lipper last week showed a record US$4.1 billion outflow from emerging market equity funds in the week to Feb 2. According to Fund-tracker EPFR Global, investors pulled more than US$7 billion out of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on emerging market stocks last week - more than double the US$3 billion outflow the previous week.
This was the third largest weekly outflow on record, and of the emerging market funds, Asia-ex-Japan ones were hardest hit. Funds flow weakness was widespread among Asia's individual country funds too. Outflows from China funds doubled from the previous week to US$455 million, overshadowing Hong Kong's net inflows. In contrast, global international funds recorded subscriptions in all of the first five weeks of 2011, with cumulative inflows of US$9 billion thus far.
What has led to this shift? Clearly, risk perceptions have changed. On the one hand, the political crisis in Egypt has put emerging market risk back in focus. These markets are also facing raging inflation, with the consequence of rising interest rates - an unconducive environment for stocks. China's latest interest rate hike simply drives home the point.
On the other hand, the developed markets don't look so much of a lost cause now. Several factors are working in favour of putting money back in US stocks, including sequential economic improvements, strong corporate profitability with better-than-expected earnings reports, and undemanding valuations. And Europe has not self-destructed (yet). Equity investors are betting political leaders will bridge their differences over the mandate of the European Financial Stability Facility and stop the region's debt crisis from spreading. Goldman Sachs, for one, is telling investors to buy European bank stocks for the first time in more than 16 months.
Views are divided on whether this shift in money from emerging equities back to developed markets is secular in nature, or just a temporary reallocation. Some are arguing that the pullback from emerging markets present a buying opportunity, but that is just a view. Much will depend on how events play out in Egypt - and that, really, is anyone's guess. Even if a peaceful outcome is reached, the winds of change from Egypt could still destabilise the Middle East. If that happens, all bets are off.
The more interesting question is how the Singapore market fits into all of this. So far, within the region, Japan has benefited most from the flight to developed markets, with investors making a distinction between the Japanese market and emerging Asia.
So yesterday, while most Asian markets struggled, the Nikkei index hit a fresh nine-month high. After a terrific 2010, Singapore stocks have started the new year quietly, and the Straits Times Index is flat, year-to-date. In some ways, it highlights the ambiguity of Singapore's position. While index builders, and some investors, have long considered Singapore a developed market in Asia, others often still lump it together with its emerging Southeast Asian peers. Previous experience suggests that the Singapore market tends to benefit when there is a flight to safety within the region, but suffers when there is a broad flight from emerging markets globally, as is the case now. So a prolonged outflow from emerging markets will probably have an adverse impact on Singapore stocks.
The shifts in fund flows in recent weeks do not change the fundamental picture: Asia and the emerging markets are still where the promise of high returns lies, as the developed countries slowly get back on their feet and return to growth. But while the future may belong to the new world, the old - for the moment at least - is providing the calm investors need. It's going to be an interesting year for equities all right.
[学生 (2-9 16:55, Long long ago)]
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(引用 学生:过几天钱又回来了！)咱发现一只真正的牛股3块多。现在还在调整，不知会不会就此止步。声明不是OLAM，过天咱进去后再贴出来。[峰峦 (2-9 17:00, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]11楼
(引用 峰峦:咱从周线上看3143，要是破了咱可不敢进去了。)3100点的心里关口能守住吗？？[峰峦 (2-10 15:05, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]12楼
(引用 峰峦:3100点的心里关口能守住吗？？)再大盘这周走的如此坚定...明天收盘大家应该cover一下空仓吧，然后下周继续？估计要等美国加息。[茶几 (2-10 23:59, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]13楼