One should exercise caution when dealing with company warrants:
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作者:pymess (等级:2 - 初出茅庐,发帖:515) 发表:2025-05-08 18:56:33  楼主  关注此帖
数据解读 目前在新市交易的十三只公司权证中, 有三只 deep-OTM, 两只 OTM,这五只可以忽略不看,(表中最后五列) 紧接其上的两只 ITM 母股总市值太小,素质堪忧,也可以略过。 表格中最上面的六只,包括 五只 ITM, 一只 shallow -ITM 可以关注,而其中最上面的三只,时间价值为负值,当然应当作为重点考察对象。 从实力上看,当然第一只品相最佳, 去年获得十倍左右涨幅,今年表现依然可圈可点。 第三只,母股增长强劲, ROE高达 43.88, PE 仅 1.76, 有这样的母股作后盾, 后面会不会很傲娇呢? 拭目以待。 回溯数据不代表未来表现,个人解读不代表推荐,分享而已啦。
One should exercise caution when dealing with company warrants:
1) Issuing warrants can sometimes signal that a company is desperate for capital or unable to raise funds through traditional methods like issuing equity, bonds, or taking out a loan. This may create the impression that the company is financially unstable.

2) Unlike structured warrants, when a company warrant is exercised, new shares are created, which results in dilution of existing shares and can negatively impact the share price.

3) Like structured warrants, company warrants also experience time decay, though it tends to be slower.

4) Company warrants do not entitle investors to dividends, unlike owning shares in the company.

Since you mentioned you enjoy attending annual meetings, I assume you’re a value investor. I’m not sure if company warrants would be suitable for a value investor, as they are generally considered a short-term speculative product.
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作者:pymess (等级:2 - 初出茅庐,发帖:515) 发表:2025-05-08 20:16:31  2楼
Value investors are very picky. Therefore, less than 10 companies among the 626 SGX listed companies can attract them to their AGMs. Only one or two company warrants among the whole listed can draw their attention. Thanks for your opinion. I have different view on those counters in ITM status, especially when their mother shares are amazing. 水无常形,法无定势
Bro, I am not here to argue whether you can buy "company warrant" or n
Of course you can buy whatever you like, as long as they are available in the market.

But unlike traditional investing product, company warrant is considered highly leveraged with very limited liquidity. I think it is better not to only inform others a list of long warrant counters, but should also explain clearly what are the potential risks and its mechanism involved. that's it.
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作者:pymess (等级:2 - 初出茅庐,发帖:515) 发表:2025-05-08 22:27:31  3楼
实际上,讨论中,“令人震惊”的情况,是很好的发现认知误区的机会,如果 误区是自己的,当然是很好的修正契机, 如果误区是别人的,也不必生气,不管别人是否愿意承认都没关系, 你发现了人群中存在一种误区,这是很好的 可以为我所用的状况,高兴还来不及呢。 诚实的作人,并不反对去发现各种认知误区。
兄弟,这根本就不是误区不误区的事。
你说“有这样的母股作后盾, 权证后面会不会很傲娇呢?”

如果假设一个股票今天是$10块钱收盘,你买了10万块钱的母股,我买了10万块钱的公司权证(假设这个权证的strike 也是$10, exp是360天后)。如果一年后的最后一天收盘价是$9.90, 那么你的钱还剩$99,000, 我的钱还剩0。 公司基本面还是很傲娇,股价也没有不傲娇,但是我买的权证10万块钱归零了。

一个人买权证的唯二两个原因是: 1) 初始资金不够买母股,但权证便宜,所以买权证。 2) 权证有leverage ( higher percentage gain).

you get 0 when you buy stocks only when the company bankrupt; you get 0 when you buy company warrants even if you make a very small error on either time or price. The product has its own risk that should not be ignored by any serious investor.






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作者:pymess (等级:2 - 初出茅庐,发帖:515) 发表:2025-05-09 08:02:29  4楼
谢谢,我明白你的思维特征了,就是说你是一个 serious investor with strong self-discipline and principles. 另外一批市场参与者,比如我,可能不是这样的,我们的思维特征是: 1. 概率: 这个母股是否足够好,如果它的 ROE 高达 40以上,PE 低于3,那么未来时间母股上涨概率与下跌概率差异是否足够大? 比如说,涨过 你例子中的 $10 的概率是否大过 90%,而跌过的概率是否少过 10% 2. 肉是否足够厚: 同样的例子,你看到的是 母股从 $10------变为 ----- $9.9 的情况,而另一部分人看到的是 比如 母股从 $10.01 变 为 $10.10 的情况,此时母股涨 千分之九,权证 涨 十倍。外面有狼嚎时,一部分人的见解是绝对不能离开羊圈,另一部分人的见解是,备好猎枪和火药,找好有利地形,干! 3. 跑道是否足够长: 你的例子中的跑道是 360天, 而实际上公司权证有一些跑道是足够长的,比如那些 2030 年后,2029 年后到期的,在长达数年的跑道中, 一个好公司竟然没有一次向上的波动, 几个 百分点 几十个百分点,这样的概率有多大? 新加坡发行的是美式权证,无需等到 到期日,在漫长的跑道上,只要有向上波动,就随时可以收获。 另外, 你说的 “Issuing warrants can sometimes signal that a com (more...)
I think i have said enough about the pros and cons of trading warrrant.
Just one final word: options exist for a valid reason. But from trading perspective, the first thing any sound trading or investing system must consider is “What is the risk?”

When buying outright options, no matter how many winning trades you've had, a single failed trade can wipe out your capital—especially if you're risking too much each time.

So, if you're "lucky" enough to win your first one or two trades, do remember to take out at least one-third to one-half of your profits. Protecting capital and managing risk is more important than chasing gains.
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作者:pymess (等级:2 - 初出茅庐,发帖:515) 发表:2025-05-09 08:37:48  5楼
谢谢你对大家的风险提示。 实际上公司权证(company warrant)与银行发行的看涨权证 (Call warrant, options) 之间有很多相似与不同之处,值得好好研究,我曾经让 ChatGPT 作过比较 "They may look similar but are structurally different tools serving different roles. Treating them as the same can lead to mispricing risks, especially regarding valuation, risk exposure, and impact on existing shareholders." 本贴讨论的是 公司权证,另外我大概有十五年以上不碰看涨权证 (Call warrant, options)了,也不讨论 CW/PW了,那是严重烧手后得到的自律。
Let me just add one important note about probability in trading.
the higher the winning probability for a particular type of trade, the lower the potential return it can generate.
Conversely, the lower the winning probability, the higher the potential return — but with greater risk.

Traders don't focus on just one trade. It's the repetitive nature of trades — the consistency of winning probabilities combined with the profit/loss ratio — that determines long-term success.

If someone believes they've found a trade with a 90% win rate and 500% potential return, that's likely just a wish. If it's a one-off lucky trade, fine. But if they think it can work on a consistent basis, it's nothing more than a castle in the air.

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