3月25日至今已经加息两次，合计50个基点。如今年不再加息，我的估计就对了。如果继续加息，我在3月25日的估计就太保守了。
25, 50, 75, 100 basis... does it really matter if your guess is right or not?
I think the primary focus should not be on the statement, "if 50 basis points are added, then I am right; and if 75 basis points are added, I will be wrong." Instead, a more meaningful approach would be to consider the following:
"if 50 basis is to be added I will buy A, Sell B and hold C; and if 75 is added instead, I will buy B sell C and Hold A; and in the event of any unexpected development, I will sell all my stocks and go for gold ETF; and out of the three scenarios, I think the first one is most likely to happen, which is why I am buying A, selling B and holding C now."
this "if - else" statement is not only about decision making, but also emphasizing the corresponding action. your prediction is "if", and more importance should be the "else"
"if 50 basis is to be added I will buy A, Sell B and hold C; and if 75 is added instead, I will buy B sell C and Hold A; and in the event of any unexpected development, I will sell all my stocks and go for gold ETF; and out of the three scenarios, I think the first one is most likely to happen, which is why I am buying A, selling B and holding C now."
this "if - else" statement is not only about decision making, but also emphasizing the corresponding action. your prediction is "if", and more importance should be the "else"
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