详见:　http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school

特别推荐:

Bob Farrell's 10 Rules (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:trading_strategies:bob_farrell_10_rules)

9.　When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.

(国事兄前不久恰好也提过的)

其他要点:

1. 支持/阻力线 (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:support_and_resistance):

2. 趋势线 (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:trend_lines):

3. 平均线 (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_averages):

4. MACD (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:moving_average_convergence_divergence_macd):

5. 蜡烛图 (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestick_bullish_reversal_patterns) (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestick_bearish_reversal_patterns):

早晨之星

黄昏之星

SIA Engineering比较稳定.

不过我觉得你要长期持有的话,应该等有一天你看到早报第一版头条是"亚太股市暴跌",然后在茶水间碰到打扫清洁的女士(本来是想用英文的那个词的,但是被你们这几天说得不敢用了)跟你脸色发青的说股市大跌, 才开始买吧.

这是因为股票是实时报价的,你不能像房子一样跟自己说没有下跌.股票大跌时,电视报纸网络旁人都会强迫你听到的,你的心情不免大受影响.所以即使是长期投资,还是选一个恐慌的时候载进场吧.

未来的事是不确定的. 有风险的东西(如赌球)在完场前是一个probability, 在完场时结果就只有一个. 对于一个事前高风险的产品,事后它未必会破产. 当它不破产时, 回头一望, 可能会觉得好像从来没有一点危险.

你可以读一下这个文章(https://research.standardchartered.com/configuration/ROW%20Documents/China_banks__Parallel_banking_uncovered_11_05_14_07_30.pdf)

我不敢多做评论, 不想有任何可能阻着你发财. 因为这些产品无论事前风险多高, 也可能无惊无险或有惊无险.

要点:

所以你说的产品几乎等同于买发展商的债券. 　发展商的5年债券利率大概是10.5-12% (http://www.financeasia.com/News/389869,oceanwide-boosts-warchest-amid-us-binge.aspx).

I. 油价跌穿70　

Oil price plunge after Opec meeting

II. 油价短中期(5年?)不能持续低于65-75.

Oil at $75 Means Patches of Texas Shale Turn Unprofitable

Oil price fall starts to weight on banks

Plummeting oil price threatens North Sea jobs

III. 油价未来不会持续高于90-100.

U.S. Transportation fuel consumption accounts for over 70 percent of total U.S. oil consumption, and more than 65 percent of that amount is for personal vehicles.　

To wean itself from imported oil, the U.S. must create a strong electric car industry. The answer may lie in Silicon Valley.

IN BEIJING, WEATHER AND POLLUTION ARE A DEADLY COMBO

US and China strike deal on carbon cuts in push for global climate change pact

IV. Sembcorp marine

短中期可能会有反弹, 因为报纸应该会大幅报道油价暴跌,　情绪悲观. 　但这只股票不符合长期持有的条件, 因为油价长期辗转向下. 　可以静看学习.

Strait Times Index

STI components

Dog of Dow Theory (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogs_of_the_Dow):

The Dogs of the Dow is an investment strategy with history. 　Michael B. O’Higgins suggested that one should purchase last year’s losers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

There are various definition of losers:

1. Highest dividend yield

2. Lowest P/E

3. The worst annual return

...

Within STI components, there are 4 losers (within both the highest yielding and worst annual return groups) :

Starhub, Keppel Corp, SIA Engineering, Sembcorp Marine