各位同学,有没有办法用外汇交易来对冲新币兑人民币的贬值
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作者:box (等级:8 - 融会贯通,发帖:1469) 发表:2009-01-17 01:34:47  22楼 
用美金作RMB的proxy, 用奥币或欧元作SGD的proxy,杠杆用1:1, 可行吗?
typical fx account leverage 50-400
i didn't do this, but i think it's a viable solution.

here is the theory, for example, one 10K account, assume maxium loss 10% (i.e. SGD appreciated 10%), leverage 50, good for a 100K notional hedge
when open, 2k margin used
if sgd appreciate 8%, 10k margin used. (need pop up money to account, since you are hedging you should 'make money' in u sgd assets')
if sgd depreciate 8%, e.g., you account will value 10K + 8k unrealized = 18k. 8k is the hedging gain.

so be careful on your notional hedge amount and margin level.

and counterparty risk need attention as well.


btw, i personally feel rmb/usd rate will be much more stable than Aus/SGD or EUR/SGD. if you short AUS long USD to hedge your SGD, it's cross-hedging which abviously introduces more uncertainties.
cross-hedge when 1) direct hedge not possible, or 2) you try to make extra profit (other than hedge)

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