oil price climbed up to $100 with some surprise
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作者:banban (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:2772) 发表:2008-02-20 10:42:20  楼主  关注此帖
昨天第一次诠释inflation对市场的杀伤力。之后这个会越来越多的。看那个借钱的疯狂劲儿 首先,credit expansion的第一结果就是造成commodity的暴涨 为什么呢,end of the day, 那些实物就那么多。钱就多得太多了
oil price climbed up to $100 with some surprise
but perhaps it is just the beginning.


这期的edge有个访谈,是看空的。 站在索洛斯阵营, 以历史, 经验和传统经济理论为基础来看空的! 我读了之后,觉得跟现在媒体上流行的新经济理论蛮不同了。 whether greenspan's credit expantion is hell, let's see how the market goes in future! only history can give verdict.

as yongster, i believe that many of us are influenced by new things, new theories, and have a feeling of "this time is different", but history repeatedly show to us that they are always the same. however, what to do, who we are is really up to individual.
人非圣贤,孰能无过;知错能改,善莫大焉!
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作者:banban (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:2772) 发表:2008-02-20 10:52:32  2楼
图穷匕首现Wednesday's Labor Department report on consumer prices for January, which is a closely watched gauge for inflation。 其实早有人提到inflation的问题,最近一次在上周The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for January, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes!!!, were $382.9 billion, an increase of 0.3 percent (±0.5%)* from the previous month and 3.9 percent (±0.7%) above January 2007." 可是市场却被媒体,巨鳄等联合操作,让我们重新学习让索罗斯赚钱的秘诀“经济史是一部基于假象和谎言的连续剧,经济史的演绎从不基于真实的剧本,但它铺平了累积巨额财富的道路。做法就是认清其假象,投入其中,在假象被公众认识之前退出游戏。”
"but not for price changes" 是什么意思?
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作者:banban (等级:6 - 驾轻就熟,发帖:2772) 发表:2008-02-20 11:35:25  3楼
没有考虑inflation的影响
then what is the real inflation? so little to ignore?
and is it so little during the depreciation of dollar?

anyway, the key is "how worse will it be?". Fed says Dun know, long position says data shows no recession, short position says it will be worse according to experience. but for stock market, where it goes is more up to who can push the emotions before there is any convincing data surfaced, which usually shows up very late!

for me, i still remain speculative, as many others.
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