uob 最近的research, 支持一下上面的帖,英文的The University of Michigan's final November consumer sentiment index was a marginal improvement over the preliminary numbers announced earlier. The index rose to 93.7 in the final reading from 93.5 in the preliminary reading. The current conditions index rose to 102.5 in November from October's final reading of 99.9 and the expectation index also rose further to 88.1 in November from 83 in October.
The better consumer mood was the result of markedly faster US growth in the third quarter and improvement in the labour market. While this may not necessarily translate into stronger consumer spending, it does at least ensure that consumer spending should not fall below current levels. Continued consumer spending plus a resurgence in business spending should keep the US growth momentum going into 2004. With growth of 3-4% annualised expected in 4Q03 and into 2004, we believe this should be a boost to Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in the months ahead. (more...)
一个比较简单的
Now that STI has jumped up quite nicely, led by buying in big caps/index
linked stocks, much of the bearish views have to be discounted already. In
fact, the sharp reversal from a bearish breakdown when it went below 1670,
to a bullish V-shape bottom at 1643, is a GOOD SIGN of a significant bottom
at 1643. See attached chart.
The downward momentum has been lost. A new up trend has started from 1643,
especially since it is able to trade above 1702 today (It will be better if
STI can close above 1702).
Conclusion: Market has turned around from bearish to bullish, possibly for
the next 5-6 weeks. Target is above the 1805 recent high, possibly 1900 by
Jan04.