科普一下：就目前的科技水平，没有哪个国家可以预测地震。发信人: Mark (bless acwang), 信区: Triangle
标 题: [科普]就目前的科技水平，地震无法预测
发信站: 北大未名站 (2008年05月12日22:53:59 星期一), 转信
1.张衡的地动仪并非预报地震，说白了就是个地震记录仪，能感敏感地感知到远处发生的
地震
2.目前的科技水平无法预测地震，只能给出一个未来时间段(一般都比较长)，某地发生
某级别地震的概率。所谓能准确预测地震的都是民科或邪教……
3.地震之前确实会出现一些诡异的自然现象，例如动物反常行为，水位的升降等。这些现
象和地震之间的关系并没有被摸清楚，所以还无法利用这些来预报地震。
4.最后，不能随便发布地震预报的原因是，误报的可能性太大。目前的地震预报水平，能
预测对地震的概率不高。误报10次带来的社会和经济损失，可能比正确预报1次带来的
收益要大得多。所以从这个角度来看，各级政府也不会随意发布地震警报的。
5.有人会问，那研究地震的那些专家在干什么？拿了这么多科研经费。现在一部分是在研
究地震的机理，例如震源机制，发震后的地下破裂过程等等，也许在将来我们可以摸清
楚地震的规律进行预报，但绝对不是短期内(我觉得我们有生之年 (more...)
嗯，说的有理，另转一个Wikipedia一段关于中国地震预测的文章
Earthquake prediction
Chinese earthquake prediction research is largely based on unusual events before earthquakes, such as change of ground water levels, strange animal behavior and foreshocks. They successfully predicted the February 4, 1975 M7.3 Haicheng earthquake[4] and the China State Seismological Bureau ordered an evacuation of 1 million people the day before the earthquake, but failed to predict the July 28, 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake.[5] This failure put Chinese earthquake prediction research in doubt for several years.
Chinese research has now merged with Western research, but traditional techniques are still common. Another successful prediction of the November 29, 1999, M5.4 Gushan-Pianling Earthquake in Haicheng city and Xiuyan city, Liaoning Province, China was made a week before the earthquake. No fatalities or injuries were reported.[6]
Chinese earthquake prediction research is largely based on unusual events before earthquakes, such as change of ground water levels, strange animal behavior and foreshocks. They successfully predicted the February 4, 1975 M7.3 Haicheng earthquake[4] and the China State Seismological Bureau ordered an evacuation of 1 million people the day before the earthquake, but failed to predict the July 28, 1976 M7.8 Tangshan earthquake.[5] This failure put Chinese earthquake prediction research in doubt for several years.
Chinese research has now merged with Western research, but traditional techniques are still common. Another successful prediction of the November 29, 1999, M5.4 Gushan-Pianling Earthquake in Haicheng city and Xiuyan city, Liaoning Province, China was made a week before the earthquake. No fatalities or injuries were reported.[6]
Huasing Association 1999 - 2013