近三个月来，Cosco一直在260到295之间徘徊，其间虽有众多的业绩消息出笼，但是市场好像处于麻木状态，毫不理会，这与Cosco龙筹老大的地位极不相符。虚无在270曾进出几次，结果每次都在290左右被主力无情地打破幻想，于是对Cosco敬而远之。现在想想，这应该是机构博弈的结果，在这个价位上，散户是无力推动股价的。Cosco的龙筹老大地位决定了众多的投资机构一定大量持票，在机构之间没有共识的情况下，突破前期的高点是非常困难的。但是就在这时，Cosco突然间放巨量拉升，旦夕之间清理了270到290的浮筹，让散户们目瞪口呆。特别是，这样的拉抬居然发生在大盘连续4日的调整中！主力的决心坚定无比。虽然散户消息闭塞，但是我们还是能够从近期市场的动态看出一些脉络。其一，龙筹股是近期市场焦点之一，龙头老大毫无道理不发力挺进，老大出马乃众望所归；其二，近日各家机构（美林、瑞银、DBS、OCBC等）纷纷调整对龙筹股的评估，其中包括调高Cosco的目标价至340到350，意味着主力渐渐对Cosco取得共识，多方占据主导地位；其三，昨日（0608）在大盘大跌的情况下，Cosco依然逆势上涨，收盘价高出前一日的最高价，丝毫看不出主力拉高打压的苗头（这一点与Yangzijiang截然不同）；最后，Cosco昨天又宣布了几个大订单，同时美国股市大力回弹，简直配合得天衣无缝，为下周Cosco创新高创造了绝好的市场气氛。综合以上分析，我们有理由认为，主力在取得共识的情况下，已经积累了足够的多方能量，突破300创新高已无任何悬念。可能有些朋友这两天已经出局，那么现在是你重新入场的良机，勇者无惧！

昨日CoscoCorp又创新高，实现400的目标也不是什么悬念。对这样的强势牛股，我们根本不用去看什么图表，只需要一份坚定的信念和无畏的勇气。强者恒强，勇者无惧！

早盘Cosco暴涨10.61%，一举突破400，再创404新高。庄家急不可耐地拉高，到底想要要干什么，我们不得而知。从盘面上看，Cosco的龙头带动作用还没有完全显现，因此暂时套利退场，将目标转移到相关股上也许是一种好的策略。关注Yangzijiang。

主力猛炒航运题材，顺势而为。
BNP PARIBAS SINGAPORE DAILY

3 July 2007

STOCK IDEAS
COSCO CORP (COS SP) ? BUY, TP: SGD5.80

THE STARS ARE ALLIGNED

Rapidly restructured for growth

Cosco Corp has undergone massive restructuring over the past decade to its
current profile which boasts increasing significance of its shipyard
operations vis-à-vis its bulk shipping operations. The growth potential of
its shipyard operations is, in our view, far superior to bulk shipping due
to strategic success factors of market leadership, labour intensity, labour
cost advantage and location, which are almost tailor-made in its favour. A
play on China's inexorable rise

The stars are aligned for Cosco Corp to succeed given the industry backdrop
in China. Favourable political infrastructure augmenting natural cost
advantages should accelerate China's global maritime market share gain.
Notwithstanding, the industry is a beneficiary of the growth in China's
trade, and businesses like ship repair stand to gain as the concentration
of maritime activity along China's coastline continues to increase.

The shipyard designate within Cosco Group

Given Cosco Group's preference for streamlining separate businesses under
separate entities, Cosco Corp's history of business restructuring, and
discussions with management, we believe that Cosco Corp could be further
rationalised to a pure shipyard play through an asset swap of its 12 bulk
vessels with its parent's, Cosco Group, indirect 19% stake in the yards.
There could be further consolidation of yard assets from Nantong Cosco KHI
as well as China Cosco, given that it is emerging as the parent's shipyard
designate.

A compelling multiyear investment story

We initiate coverage with a BUY and SoTP target price of SGD5.80, which
yields 55% upside. A supporting DCF estimate with 9.3% WACC and 2.5% TGR is
SGD5.52. Like Yangzijiang, which trades at 26.5x FY08 PER, we believe Cosco
(19.2x) should trade closer to its Chinese peers (average 26.6x). Factors
such as Cosco's domestic leadership in ship repair coupled with its
fast-growing engineering and ship-building segment, China's ambition for
the industry, as well as potential asset injections makes for a compelling
multiyear investment.