转自straits time-Do not rush to push the COE prices higherCertificate of entitlement (COE) premiums are on the rise. Compared with the start of the year, car COEs have climbed by 28 to 59 per cent to $33,199 (cars up to 1,600cc), $48,000 (cars above 1,600cc) and $52,410 (open).
Folks looking to buy a new car might be alarmed. Should they rush out to buy before prices rise further?
In a word, no. Because doing so will only fuel the premium hike. Time and again, we have seen similar market responses sending prices even higher and resulting in a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The right thing to do is to resist the temptation and wait it out. What goes up will come down and COE prices are no exception.
Let those who choose to succumb to fear flock to the showrooms. They might drive prices up, but it will be temporary and at their expense. Once demand from panic buying is soaked up, prices will head south.
More so, since the factors fanning the COE flame in recent months have little to do with retail demand. More likely than not, they were linked to competition between the two private-hire operators - Grab and Gojek - here.
Changes to regulations governing the private-hire industry are expected in the next couple of months. Operators could be expecting these changes to have an impact on their businesses and are rushing to grow their fleets now - before new rules are announced.
There are two possible scenarios ahead.
One, if these new rules are what the industry expects, COE prices will ease because they will no longer be able to operate the way they have been, which drove them to rush for COEs in the first place.
Two, if the new rules are not what the industry expects, COE prices will also ease because players would have "bought forward" and no longer need to secure COEs as aggressively as before.
Consumers who join the rush now will run the risk of facing negative equity - when the residual value of the car is less than the balance of the owner's loan - when a correction in COE prices comes (and it will come).
Many who bought their cars three to five years ago are facing this situation. Some are scrapping their cars prematurely and replacing them with new ones with lower COEs. This is a costly exercise, even if it appears to be one which allows consumers to cut losses.
It would be far more prudent to wait for the current frenzy to die down before making your way to the showroom.
The considerations are similar for car owners looking to extend the lifespan of their current rides. Some are looking to pay the prevailing quota premium (PQP) now, even though there are several months left before their vehicle's COE expires.
They should likewise resist doing so. Especially if the expiring COE is a relatively inexpensive one. They should instead enjoy the use of their low-COE car right up to the last possible day.
If PQP - a moving average of quota premiums - turns out to be higher than they are now, so be it.
Scrapping a car before its run-out date has a cost too. For instance, if a car has an annual depreciation of $7,500, deregistering it six months earlier would incur an implicit cost of $3,750.
Will COE climb $3,750 over the next six months, after having risen by an average of $10,000 since the beginning of the year? Well, even if it does rise by more than $3,750, the cost to those who wait will not be significant.
At the same time, those who choose to wait stand the chance of paying a lower PQP should premiums soften.
And which direction premiums head in the next few months will depend largely on how consumers behave in the next few weeks.
As for the irrational exuberance of private-hire operators, upcoming regulatory changes will hopefully rein them in.
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该帖荣获当日十大第7，奖励楼主6分以及9华新币，时间：2019-05-04 22:00:05。
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[limpeh (5-4 11:38, Long long ago)]
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不需要用别人的文章印证自己的观点用事实印证自己的观点不是更好吗？[mmff (5-4 12:01, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]2楼
(引用 mmff:不需要用别人的文章印证自己的观点用事实印证自己的观点不是更好吗？)想多了，转个花钱才能读到的文章而已已经有车的人对COE的起伏不感冒 [本文发送自华新手机Wap版] [limpeh (5-4 12:13, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]3楼
买第二辆第三量的可以等等最差就是一辆车挤一挤了 [本文发送自华新手机Wap版] [nullptr (5-4 12:16, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]4楼
我估计下次低谷是在2028年what goes up will come down是没错，可是不说时间需要多久就属于耍流氓了。如果是刚需现在肯定应该赶紧买，如果可有可无就可以等等，虽然不会再有2万多那么低，但是不排除出现小低谷的可能性 [本文发送自华新iOS APP] [滚雪球 (5-4 12:23, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]5楼
人类是自私的 你懂的 [本文发送自华新iOS APP] [功夫熊猫 (5-4 12:59, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]6楼
(引用 滚雪球:我估计下次低谷是在2028年what goes up will come down是没错，可是不说时间需要多久就属于耍流氓了。如果是刚需现在肯定应该赶紧买，如�...)文章的意思是retail的刚需并不是COE大涨的主要原因罪魁祸首是私招车公司们抢COE
至于时间，按照文章的意思，过几个月私招车的新政策出来，也许会有所缓解
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[limpeh (5-4 13:02, Long long ago)]
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(引用 limpeh:文章的意思是retail的刚需并不是COE大涨的主要原因罪魁祸首是私招车公司们抢COE 至于时间，按照文章的意思，过几个月私招车的新政策出来�...)有数据吗？不管私招车抢不抢，供应大幅度减少是现实，只不过现在涨的太快了，慢慢涨才健康 [本文发送自华新iOS APP] [滚雪球 (5-4 13:11, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]8楼
(引用 滚雪球:有数据吗？不管私招车抢不抢，供应大幅度减少是现实，只不过现在涨的太快了，慢慢涨才健康)上次不是有人贴过数据了嘛 [本文发送自华新手机Wap版] [limpeh (5-4 13:25, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]9楼
(引用 limpeh:上次不是有人贴过数据了嘛)那是供给侧数据需求端到底是gojek抢车还是个人买来开看不到。当然，一个明显的造成需求增加的因素是很多人买了车就会兼职做grabhitch或者grab来降低拥车成本，所以本来可能负担不起车就变成负担的起了。其实现在直接买车的不应该是gojek和grab，而是那些刚刚好差一点负担不起车又有时间的人也进入了需求端。就好像我刚刚毕业一个人工作的时候每天会有大量的时间开private hire，如果当时有grab也许一毕业就买车了。长期来看，供给减少需求增加的情况到2027年都很难变化。2027年就会又进入下跌周期了，然后下次的低点应该是在2028年（考虑到private hire到时候已经成熟，如果没有新的因素的话，应该是在这次最低点+9年半的时候达到最低） [本文发送自华新iOS APP] [滚雪球 (5-4 13:40, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]10楼
(引用 滚雪球:那是供给侧数据需求端到底是gojek抢车还是个人买来开看不到。当然，一个明显的造成需求增加的因素是很多人买了车就会兼职做grabhitch或者...)是Gojek的数字Word has it that rental companies in partnership with Gojek have been on a buying spree, with one of their latest acquisitions being a fleet of 1,000 Opel Insignia sedans.
也是straits time的报道
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[limpeh (5-4 16:36, Long long ago)]
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(引用 滚雪球:那是供给侧数据需求端到底是gojek抢车还是个人买来开看不到。当然，一个明显的造成需求增加的因素是很多人买了车就会兼职做grabhitch或者...)其实从LTA数据可以分辨出来https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M06-Vehs_by_Type.pdf
可以看出PHV在去年11月是最低点，之后便一直增加，到今年3月已经增加了将近2000辆PHV,这应该主要来自Gojek吧[shearwater (5-4 18:09, Long long ago)]
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(引用 limpeh:是Gojek的数字Word has it that rental companies in partnership with Gojek have been on a buying spree, with one of their latest a...)搜不到新闻链接就当有car rental公司买了1000辆opel吧，其实看PHV增加的数据就行了，楼下说了，PHV增加了2000辆。不过注意，谁都能去注册PHV，不一定是新车。我反正更倾向于理解为因为PHV的存在拥车成本得到补偿所以需求增加了，那些租车公司觉得车便宜自己又现金随时可以买，长期来讲租车的需求一直都在。反正就是缺乏数据，唯一确定的就是需求增加了，供应减少了。如果路上的车数量总数没有变化，总人口和平均收入又增加，按照新加坡的COE模型只能造成车价螺旋式上升，什么政策都没有用，这个就是看不见的手决定的，其他政策都只能短期改变COE的价格罢了 [本文发送自华新iOS APP] [滚雪球 (5-4 18:29, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]13楼
(引用 shearwater:其实从LTA数据可以分辨出来https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/files/FactsandFigures/M06-Vehs_by_T...)这个是注册成为PHV的车的数量不一定是gojek买的车，也不一定是新车 [本文发送自华新iOS APP] [滚雪球 (5-4 18:34, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]14楼
(引用 滚雪球:我估计下次低谷是在2028年what goes up will come down是没错，可是不说时间需要多久就属于耍流氓了。如果是刚需现在肯定应该赶紧买，如�...)从供应量来说每10年一个轮回考虑到通膨，下一个底会比之前的底高。
但中间的变数是经济危机和uber,grab之类的搅局者
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[匿名小ID (5-4 19:36, Long long ago)]
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每次房价上涨也一堆人这么说但实际决定价格的就是供需，如果未来供给下降的话，除非政府出台措施不准大家买车压制需求活着不准phv购车，不然没有可能coe会掉，最多稳定，写这种文章的人都是自己有车站着说话不腰疼的 [本文发送自华新iOS APP] [salvadodali (5-5 9:25, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]16楼
这波操作有效果啊这轮的Cat B和Open Cat相当于没涨 [本文发送自华新手机Wap版] [limpeh (5-8 18:03, Long long ago)] [ 传统版 | sForum ][登录后回复]17楼