Markets- That this is a trend reversal in global equity markets is a moot point. At the very least, we are witnessing an unwinding of the upmove from June lows. The question now is whether there is a catalyst for a rebound. The Japanese yen, which has been strengthening sharply against the US dollar could potentially stabilize and this could provide a catalyst for a rebound. The 7 day average true range, which is indicative of volatility is close to reaching a 1 year high level and from a statistical basis, such a sharp rally in the Yen will almost certainly give way to some sort of consolidation. Any such consolidation could provide for a temporary relief in equity markets which have been mostly affected by the unwinding of yen carry trades and simultaneous shorts on the related currencies and equities.
Singapore bourse- This is a trend reversal and the index will eventually head lower as the ST index has now declined in a 5 downward waves. However, there is a possibility that the decline from 3153 is a wave b and the index could potentially rebound from 2980-2990 level towards 3100. Addtionally, the st index has now fallen by 330 points, which is close to our model mean long term deviation. There is aposibility that the ST index could stabalise between 2980-2990 and then head back towards 3100.
Stocks and Support levels-
1. Sing Tel- support at $2.98-3.02- close to gap level and 50% retracement level.
2. Synear- Support at $1.81-1.83
3. Ausgroup- support at 38%r retracement level near $0.59
